Predicting trends during the most volatile housing market in American real estate history is no easy task. We strongly believe these are the five real estate items we should keep an eye on in 2012:

1. Buyers Will Return

In 2011, a lack of consumer confidence in the overall economy dramatically impacted the housing market. Buyers were afraid to make a purchasing decision on any big ticket item. By the end of 2011, consumer confidence began to return and sales increased. Economic conditions will continue to improve throughout 2012 and consumer sentiment will solidify. Once that happens, home buyers will realize that now is the time to buy.

2. Foreclosures Will Increase

The ‘shadow inventory’ of foreclosures which has been growing since the robo-signing challenges of late 2010 will finally be introduced to the market. Distressed properties sell at discounted prices. They will impact the housing values of the non-distressed homes in the area.

3. Prices Will Soften

As more and more foreclosures come to market, there will be greater downward pressure on the values of houses in the region. Foreclosures impact values of non-distressed properties in two ways:

• They will eat up some of the buyer demand in the market.
• They will impact the appraisal on ALL transactions in the area.

An increase in foreclosures will have a negative impact on values. This will cause more homes to be underwater.

4. Short Sales Will Increase

As mentioned above, we strongly believe that home prices will soften through at least the first half of 2012. Falling prices will force more homeowners into a position of negative equity. Negative equity is one of the triggers that cause people to strategically default on their mortgage obligations. If this happens, there could be an increase in the number of foreclosures. However, we predict that banks will take preventative measures which will help many of these homes avoid foreclosure by easing the requirements in the short sale process for both homeowners and real estate professionals.

5. Great Agents Will Be VERY Successful

Real Estate professionals who have invested the money, time and energy to truly understand what is happening and why it is happening will separate themselves from their competition and do very well this year.

Those who take that next step of learning how to simply and effectively communicate the market to their clients will be seen as industry leaders. These experts will dominate their markets.

This blog will help you with the what and the why. If you are looking for help with how to communicate this information to clients and customers, go here.

This week we are posting the best blogs of 2011 by category. We hope you enjoy them as much as you did when we first posted them. – The KCM Crew

Short Sale Vs. Foreclosure: A Short Sale Always Wins

Today’s ever changing real estate industry has brought upon some very challenging questions from our clients. We as counselors, want to put forth the best, non-emotional advice that we can, in hopes that we can help our clients and their families navigate the rough waters of the short sale process.

The most prevalent question and one that continues to permeate the industry is:

“Why should a seller go through the short sale process rather than letting their house be foreclosed upon?” 

While we cannot speak to every client circumstance, we can say one thing with complete conviction.  In almost all instances in which a potential seller is contemplating whether they should short sell their house or let it go through the foreclosure process, a short sale is the better option. The following are examples to consider:

Example A- Short Sale

Mr. Smith owns a home in which he has a mortgage balance of $220,000 and a current market value of $150,000. Mr. Smith has elected to short sell his property. His Realtor successfully obtains a buyer who puts forth an offer price of $120,000 (80% current market value according to Realty Trac Foreclosure Report 5/26/2011). After reviewing the buyers offer and the financial hardship information from Mr. Smith, Mr Smith’s bank agrees to accept the short payoff of $120,000 which would leave a deficiency balance of $100,000.

The transaction closes and is final.  Mr. Smith then pulls his credit report 30 days after the transaction takes place. On the report he notices that the mortgage trade line states “Mortgage debt was settled for less than full” and the balance on the mortgage is $0.  Mr. Smith is now on the road to financial recovery.

Example B- Foreclosure

For the ease of illustration we will use the same value and mortgage debt amounts as in Example A. However, Mr. Smith has elected to forgo the short sale process and let the bank foreclose on the property.  The bank holding his mortgage facilitates the proper legal procedures to foreclose on the property, all of which are costly.  Mr. Smith is notified and his property foreclosed upon of which is taken back by the bank to sell as an REO.

Six months later, the bank finally sells Mr. Smith’s home only they sell it for $90,000 (60% of current market value according to Realty Trac Foreclosure report dated 5/26/2011). Remember, as a short sale, the home would have sold for $120,000 keeping the deficiency to $100,000. In addition to the deficiency now being $130,000, the bank has elected to add on legal costs of $15,000 and asset preservation costs of another $5000 for a total deficiency liability of $150,000. Mr. Smith pulls his credit report 30 days after being notified that the bank has sold his property and of his liability.

On the report he notices that the mortgage trade line states “Foreclosure” and the balance is $150,000. Because of Mr Smith’s choice to choose foreclosure vs. short sale his road to financial recovery has taken a major detour. He not only has a foreclosure on his credit report but now has a much larger deficiency balance in which the bank, in most cases, will report on his credit report as a balance owed.

The Best Option is Clear

While the financial and credit advantages are clear when choosing a short sale over a foreclosure, other advantages are sometimes overlooked. The most important of all of them is maintaining the seller’s dignity and peace of mind. We have heard too many stories of families having to leave their homes because of a Sheriff’s order or some other type of legal action. The short sale process alleviates this negative social impact. The process puts the control back in the seller’s hands so that they can get back on the road to financial recovery and start providing for their families. In the battle of the two evils, a short sale always wins!!!

We are again honored to have Christopher Reale, Director of Short Sale Operations at Lepizzera and Laprocina Title and Escrow Services, as today’s guest blogger. He is an expert on the short sale process and will share his knowledge with us on a regular basis. – The KCM Crew

In any business, whether it be real estate or other, in order to be successful one must have a systematic approach to their craft. This holds true when putting a short sale transaction together. During our 5 year tenure negotiating short sales, we have found that some Real Estate professionals lack such an approach.

I learned early in my mortgage career that if I submitted a lackluster credit file to my underwriting department I would receive lackluster results. These results included denied files, upset underwriters and a processing department that wanted to throw the file back on my desk faster than I wanted it submitted.  I quickly remedied the situation after a conversation with a very good friend who is a million dollar producer in the financial services industry. He shared with me his systematic approach when handling his clients. He did not sway from this system. He applied the approach to every client that he spoke to. He did the work up front, asking every detailed question imaginable on his fact finding sheet. He left no stone unturned. Though sometimes monotonous in nature, this systematic approach allowed him to implement a solid financial plan for his clients and provide the bridge to a solid financial future.

I quickly adopted a similar approach with my clients. I was able to come up with a systematic approach to my origination method that was both trackable and attainable. I left no stone unturned when speaking to my clients. I made sure I over documented the credit file and provided a complete and accurate credit profile to my underwriting department for every client I had the pleasure of writing a loan for. The results were amazing. I was pushing files through underwriting with transaction speeds never seen before and I was making allies doing so. When the processing and underwriting departments received a file from me, they knew it would only have to be touched one time and a conditional approval would be granted. They actually wanted to receive files from me rather than wanting to throw them back on my desk.  Success!

I share this information because the short sale application process is very similar to the loan origination process.

However, if you take a shot gun approach rather than a targeted systematic approach to the process, you will set yourself up for failure.  Below are the documents one must attain to make sure the short selling bank does not throw the file back on your desk when submitting the file for short sale approval:

Financial Information

• Tax information
• Two most recent 1040′s
• Two most recent W2′s
• 60 days of current bank statements
• 30 days of current pay stubs or commission check stubs
• If self employed-pay stubs or YTD profit and loss statement
• Monthly budget/financial statement signed and dated same day as P&S

Hardship information

• Hardship letter dated signed same day as purchase contract
• Any docs supporting the actual hardship
• Medical bills
• Child support or alimony payment information. Divorce decree or child support order

Mortgage & Other Relevant Property Information

• 1st Mortgage statement
• 2nd Mortgage statement if applicable
• Recent Real Estate tax bills
• Recent condo association bills if applicable
• Any recent water or sewer bills

Other Pertinent Documentation

• Authorization form
• Short sale disclosure
• Waiver of conflict if representing the buyer
• 3 recent comps
• Listing agreement
• Offer/P&S
• Listing history
• Buyer proof of funds letter or Pre Approval letter

It is important to understand that the above documents are required for almost every short selling bank. There are also bank specific forms that, in most cases, must accompany the above. You may contact your negotiator or the bank directly to obtain the bank specific documents. However, if you make an attempt to structure a document checklist with the above documents and systematically approach every short sale file with the idea of fulfilling that checklist, you will soon see that the short sale process will be one which will prove to be lucrative. The end result will be a happy buyer, seller, production team and, of course, bank negotiator. After all, a systematic approach to the short sale process will alleviate the negotiator throwing the file back on your desk for deficient information. In fact, they will be eagerly awaiting the next file with your name on it!

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We are again honored to have Christopher Reale, Director of Short Sale Operations at Lepizzera and Laprocina Title and Escrow Services, as today’s guest blogger. He is an expert on the short sale process and will share his knowledge with us on a regular basis. – The KCM Crew

Short sale success does not stop at educating the seller as to their loss of mitigation options and then successfully negotiating with the seller’s bank to accept a short payoff. Today’s complex real estate market warrants more.  Having negotiated over 1000 successful short sales, we have found one aspect of the short sale process that needs serious attention: Educating the buyer regarding the proper short sale procedures.

Educating the buyer and setting the correct expectations is imperative to a successful short sale transaction. Nothing is more discouraging than successfully negotiating a short sale only to have the buyers walk from or not be able to close the transaction. The following are some precautionary and educational items to consider which would avoid such buyer fallout.

Patience is a Virtue

Not every buyer is a short sale buyer.  However, one important characteristic a short sale buyer must have is patience. Setting the proper expectations regarding the time frame of a short sale plays a key role in bringing the short sale to the closing table.  If a buyer is not willing to stay in the transaction for at least 90 days, they are not a short sale buyer. Of course we cannot speak for every circumstance. But, in most cases, the short sale process takes 60-90 days to complete.  For their patience, the buyer will likely earn instant equity. The average short sale, according to the Realty Trac report dated 5/21/11, sells for 79 percent of market value. To that end, a buyer will earn “patience equity” (a term coined by Steve Harney).

Work with a Lender that Understands the Short Sale Process

The pre-approval process should be the same whether the buyer is being pre- approved to buy a short sale or pre-approved to buy a non-distressed property. This seems like simple advice doesn’t it?  However, from our vast experience negotiating short sales, we have found that 35% of successfully negotiated short sales do not reach the closing table because the buyers financing falls through. We must educate buyers to work with the proper lender who will not only walk them through the mortgage process, but also understands the short sale process. Too many mortgage applications start at the time of short sale approval. Some short sale approvals expire in 10- 15 days from date of issue. In many cases, that is not enough time for a lender to underwrite the file, order title, order appraisal and fund the loan.

A proper pre-approved short sale buyer would be one who is brought through a complete underwriting analysis prior to the short sale offer. This includes full income analysis, full asset analysis and full credit analysis. The ideal lender is one who completes the underwriting procedure and has a credit decision pending clear title and appraisal. The lender should also help in keeping the buyer engaged throughout the process. In a lengthy short sale negotiation, the lender should be proactive in keeping the loan file up to date with recent paystubs, asset documentation etc.  This will ensure the transaction closes on time and without extensions.

Complete Inspections Prior to the Short Sale Approval

This is a confrontational subject but each buyer should be educated to understand that in most cases any major deficiency regarding the condition of the property will not be cured prior to closing. However, in many instances, if the deficiencies are known prior to the start of the short sale negotiation, the short selling bank will be more willing to except a sale price that is discounted deeper to the current market value. It is a challenging task to go back to the bank and ask for a lower sales price when a home inspection that was done after short sale approval showed major deficiencies.

In addition to the home inspection, the lender appraisal can be done prior to the short sale approval.  In most circumstances where the short selling bank’s broker price opinion shows a property value that is much higher than the buyer offer, the lender appraisal can be used to negotiate the value.

We should educate buyers as to the pros and cons of completing the inspections prior to short sale approval.  We understand there is a monetary commitment that would have to be made. Having said that, having the inspections done can save allot of aggravation to the seller and buyer later in the process.

In closing, the above are just a few items to consider when educating the buyer regarding the proper short sale procedures. If we remember to keep the buyer engaged and walk them through the process every step of the way, we will ensure the buyer earns their “patience equity” and the short sale transaction closes.